RKI modelling: High vaccination rate necessary to control COVID-19

8.7.2021

In order to control the further incidence of COVID-19 infection in Germany, the vaccination campaign should continue with high intensity until at least 85% of those 12-59 years old and 90% of those over 60 are vaccinated. This is the result of current mathematical modelling by RKI experts, which is reported in the current RKI epidemiological bulletin. If this vaccination rate is reached in time, a pronounced 4th wave in the coming autumn/winter seems unlikely. The prerequisite, however, is that the German population continues to adhere to basic hygiene measures in addition to vaccination and reduces contacts to a certain degree in the event of a possible increase in the number of infections. According to the RKI, 84% of people in Germany over the age of 60 had already been vaccinated with at least one dose of a vaccine as of June 2021. In their calculations, the RKI experts assumed an increasing dominance of the delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. According to population surveys conducted by the RKI, the willingness to vaccinate is high enough in Germany to achieve the target vaccination rates calculated in the model. According to the RKI, providing sufficient capacities to administer the planned amounts of vaccine is important for the control of COVID-19 in the coming months. The summer should be used urgently to achieve a high vaccination rate as quickly as possible.